Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Arbeitskräfteangebot sinkt auch bei hoher Zuwanderung

Johann Fuchs, Doris Söhnlein and Brigitte Weber
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Johann Fuchs: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Doris Söhnlein: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Brigitte Weber: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 201706, IAB-Kurzbericht from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "The German potential labour force is expected to shrink strongly for demographic reasons. Even if we assume an annual net migration of 200,000 persons, which is approximately the average over a longer historical period, the potential labour force will drop from the current (2015) high level of 45.8m workers to 38.9m in 2060. The report also evaluates the effect of a higher migration inflow, a rise in the birth rates, the influence of increasing labour participation rates of women and older persons and a better integration of female migrants. Neither of these improvements could compensate for the demographic development nor can the sum." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Bevölkerungsprognose; demografischer Wandel; Erwerbsbeteiligung; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; Geschlechterverteilung; Migration; Altersstruktur; Prognose; Arbeitskräfteangebot; 1990-2060 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201706

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