Bayesian Evidence on the Structure of Unemployment

Peter Summers

Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series from Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne

Abstract: This paper presents a Bayesian assessment of the likelihood of unit roots in the unemployment rates of 16 OECD countries. Bayesian techniques for detecting multiple structural breaks in time series have recently been developed by Wang and Zivot (2000). I apply these tests to a data set recently analyzed by Papell et al (2000). I also treat the number of structural breaks as an additional parameter to be estimated. I fin virtually no support for unit root hysteresis in OECD unemployment rates; this result is very robust to the choice of prior.

JEL-codes: C11 C22 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2003-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Bayesian evidence on the structure of unemployment (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2003n03

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