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Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times

Giovanni Caggiano (), Efrem Castelnuovo () and Gabriela Nodari ()

Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series from Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne

Abstract: We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are identified by focusing on historical events that are associated to jumps in financial volatility. Uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions are found to trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in real activity than in expansions. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the effectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity is greater in expansions. Finally, we provide empirical and narrative evidence pointing to a risk management approach by the Federal Reserve.

Keywords: Uncertainty shocks; nonlinear Smooth Transition Vector AutoRegressions; Generalized Impulse Response Functions; systematic monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66pp
Date: 2017-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fdg, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Related works:
Working Paper: Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times (2014) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2017n09

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