Virtual Water Trade and Bilateral Conflicts

Enrico De Angelis, Rodolfo Metulini, Vincenzo Bove and Massimo Riccaboni ()
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Enrico De Angelis: IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca

No 02/2017, Working Papers from IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca

Abstract: n light of growing water scarcity, virtual water, or the water embedded in key water-intensive commodities, has been an active area of debate among practitioners and academics alike. As of yet, however, there is no consensus on whether water scarcity affects conflict behavior and we still lack empirical research intending to account for the role of virtual water in affecting the odds of militarized disputes between states. Using quantitative methods and data on virtual water trade, we find that bilateral and multilateral trade openness reduce the probability of war between any given pair of country, which is consistent with the strategic role of this important commodity and the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. We also find that the substantive effect of virtual water trade is comparable to that of oil and gas, the archetypal natural resources, in determining interstate conflicts' probability.

Keywords: Conflicts; International Trade; Water Scarcity; Virtual Water; Strategic Commodities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 Q25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2017-01, Revised 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-int
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published in EIC working paper series

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http://eprints.imtlucca.it/3650/1/EIC_WP_2_2017.pdf First version, 2017

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