This paper studies how job task routinization shapes return intentions of Ukrainian war refugees in Poland following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Using two waves of nationwide survey data from 2022 and 2023 with worker-level measures of job tasks, we document widespread occupational downgrading accompanied by substantial task routinization, namely an increase in routine task intensity (RTI) as compared to jobs held pre-displacement. Task routinization is substantial among both refugees who transition to lower-skilled occupations and those who nominally retain their pre-war occupational status. Guided by a framework in which task routinization reduces skill utilisation and job satisfaction, we show that refugees experiencing larger RTI increases are significantly more likely to plan a return to Ukraine by 2023, particularly those who initially intended to stay. This relationship persists after controlling for earnings and occupational downgrading and is confirmed using an instrumental-variable strategy. Our findings suggest that job content, beyond employment status and earnings, plays a central role in refugee integration and return decisions

Piotr Lewandowski, Agata Górny, Mateusz KrzakaÅ‚a and Marta Palczyńska
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Mateusz Piotr Krząkała

No 01/2025, IBS Working Papers from Instytut Badan Strukturalnych

Keywords: migration; return intentions; occupational downgrading; task content of jobs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J24 J61 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2025-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-mig and nep-tra
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