UNIVERSAL CHILD BENEFIT AND CHILD POVERTY: THE ROLE OF FERTILITY ADJUSTMENTS

Jan Gromadzki

No 03/2024, IBS Working Papers from Instytut Badan Strukturalnych

Abstract: I study fertility adjustments after introducing a large universal child benefit in Poland. The program caused a six percent increase in the number of births. Patterns of selection into parenthood changed significantly and persistently, with a weakening of positive selection based on education and a strengthening of negative selection based on income. The share of births in the bottom half of the income distribution increased from 51 percent to 58 percent. Using a microsimulation approach, I combine changes in the birth structure with existing estimates of the transfer's effect on labour supply to study the impact of these adjustments on poverty reduction. These impacts are very small due to the exceptional generosity of the transfer, but they become more pronounced in the middle of the income distribution.

Keywords: fertility; child benefit; unconditional cash transfer; poverty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H31 I38 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2024-11
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Related works:
Working Paper: Universal Child Benefit and Child Poverty: The Role of Fertility Adjustments (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp032024

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