Rational extremism: the calculus of discontent

Ronald Wintrobe

ICER Working Papers from ICER - International Centre for Economic Research

Abstract: The basic point of the paper is that, under certain circumstances, groups which take extremist positions on issues tend also to use extremist methods such as terrorism and violence to pursue those goals. I assume that the leaders of extremist groups are rational, therefore, given their goals, they choose the best methods to achieve them. From this point of view, the basic difference between extremist methods of political competition and moderate methods is just that extremist methods are risky, implying the possibility of bigger success or bigger failure compared to moderate methods. Extremists in position adopt extremist methods when there is an indivisibility which characterizes the relationship between the intermediate goal of the group and its ultimate goal. In the paper I look at three examples: Communism (control over the means of production is an intermediate goal to the achievement of a communist society), Nationalism (control over territory is an intermediate goal to the achievement of nationhood) and Islamic Fundamentalism (ridding the Muslim nations of foreign and secular influences is an intermediate goal to the achievement of an Islamic society). In turn, conflict between each of these and opposing groups (respectively, capitalism, other nations with the same territorial ambition, secularism), in a sense, inevitable as it results from the conflict between their ultimate goals. If correct, the paper would appear to raise a troubling challenge to liberal theory. Freedom of thought is central to liberal theory provided that democratic methods are used to pursue that goal. If there tends to be a correlation between extremist positions and extremist methods, then it may be difficult for the state to combat the latter without imposing controls on the former. The most important policy implication of the paper is that one should look at the goals of extremist group in order to understand their actions. One reason is that it is the purported indivisibility of the goal which explains the extremism of the actions, and if one can un- bundle the goal or make the indivisible divisible, then there may be ways to provide these goals in a way which satisfies some of the members of the group and thus dries up support for the grander ambitions of the leaders of extremist groups.

Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2004-04
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