Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Which Jobs Will AI Replace After All?: A New Index of Occupational Exposure

Miguel Benítez and Eric Parrado ()

No 13696, IDB Publications (Working Papers) from Inter-American Development Bank

Abstract: This paper introduces the AI Generated Index of Occupational Exposure (GENOE), a novel measure quantifying the potential impact of artificial intelligence on occupations and their associated tasks. Our methodology employs synthetic AI surveys, leveraging large language models to conduct expert-like assessments. This approach allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of job replacement likelihood, minimizing human bias and reducing assumptions about the mechanisms through which AI innovations could replace job tasks and skills. The index not only considers task automation, but also contextual factors such as social and ethical considerations and regulatory constraints that may affect the likelihood of replacement. Our findings indicate that the average likelihood of job replacement is estimated at 0.28 in the next year, increasing to 0.38 and 0.44 over the next five and ten years, respectively. To validate our methodology, we successfully replicate other measures of occupational exposure that rely on human expert assessments, substituting these with AI-based evaluations. The GENOE index provides valuable insights for policymakers, employers, and workers, offering a data-driven foundation for strategic workforce planning and adaptation in the face of rapid technological change.

JEL-codes: C53 C81 J23 J24 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-lma and nep-tid
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english ... ational-Exposure.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 403 Forbidden

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:idb:brikps:13696

DOI: 10.18235/0013125

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IDB Publications (Working Papers) from Inter-American Development Bank Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Felipe Herrera Library ().