Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Chile

Juan Pablo Medina, Michael Pedersen and Gerardo Reyes-Tagle

No 14734, IDB Publications (Working Papers) from Inter-American Development Bank

Abstract: This paper studies the long-term macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population aging in Chile using a semi-structural, multi-sector macro-fiscal model that links demographic dynamics, labor market behavior, sectoral production, fiscal revenues, age-related public expenditures, and government debt. Beyond the application to Chile, the contribution lies in the integrated nature of the framework, which allows for a consistent analysis of how demographic change propagates through the economy to affect fiscal sustainability. Chile provides a particularly relevant case given the speed of its demographic transition, the growing importance of publicly financed pension benefits, and the central role of consumption taxation, as well as a production structure in which mining plays a key role in shaping fiscal capacity.

Keywords: stochastic; simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E62 H30 H55 H68 J11 J26 Q33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:idb:brikps:14734

DOI: 10.18235/0014496

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