Quantitative Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Policies

Beomsoo Kim (), Sang Soo Park and Sunbin Kim ()
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Beomsoo Kim: Department of Economics, Korea University, South Korea
Sunbin Kim: Department of Economics, Yonsei University, South Korea

No 2203, Discussion Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Korea University

Abstract: Countries are implementing containment policies to fight the coronavirus 2019 pandemic. We extend the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to include asymptomatic cases, which account for around 20%. We consider the cumulative confirmed and death cases in Italy and South Korea for our model estimation. The data for Italy, collated up to March 14, 2020, are not affected by any containment policy, whereas the data for South Korea collated up to the end of April 2020 reflect four containment policies: social distancing, preemptive quarantine, testing and quarantine of symptomatic or asymptomatic patients. Our policy experiments show that the testing and quarantine of symptomatic patients are very effective to contain, but not enough to extinguish, the epidemic. Thus, testing and quarantine should include the asymptomatic cases as well.

Keywords: Extended SEIR Model; COVID-19; asymptomatic cases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C19 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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