The issue context of modern American politics: semiparametric identification of latent factors from Discrete data

Byron Shafer and Richard Spady
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Byron Shafer: Institute for Fiscal Studies
Richard Spady: Institute for Fiscal Studies and Johns Hopkins

No CWP16/02, CeMMAP working papers from Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: A new methodology that estimates attitudes semiparametrically and estimates actions nonparametrically, as a function of the resulting attitudinal measures, is used to examine the behavioral effects of ?ultural' and ?conomic' preferences in the Presidential elections of 1984 and 1992. The results suggest a shift toward ?ultural politics? achieved Ust among the highly educated but spreading throughout society by the later election. One consequence is that both parties are now consistent in their policy alignments?he Democrats being liberal on both scales, the Republicans conservative. Despite this aggregate consistency, different social groups are attached to the parties in dihrent ways, thereby heightening the potential for intraparty conkct while sharpening the problem of fashioning a platform that is broadly attractive. These problems, finally, express themselves very dihrently within the Democratic and the Republican parties.

Pages: 42 pp.
Date: 2002-08-15
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