Estimating the peace dividend: the impact of violence on house prices in Northern Ireland

Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller

No W09/18, IFS Working Papers from Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: This paper exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. We begin with a linear model that estimates the average treatment effect of a conflict-related killing on house prices .showing a negative correlation between house prices and killings. We then develop an approach based on an economic model where the parameters of the statistical process are estimated for a Markov switching model where conflict and peace are treated as a latent state. From this, we are able to construct a measure of the discounted number of killings which is updated in the light of actual killings. This model naturally suggests a heterogeneous effect of killings across space and time which we use to generate estimates of the peace dividend. The economic model suggests a somewhat different pattern of estimates to the linear model. We also show that there is some evidence of spillover effects of violence in adjacent regions.

Date: 2009-09-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ifs.org.uk/wps/wp0918.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.ifs.org.uk/wps/wp0918.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://www.ifs.org.uk/wps/wp0918.pdf [302 Found]--> https://ifs.org.uk/wps/wp0918.pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland (2012)
Working Paper: Estimating the Peace Dividend:The Impact of Violence on HousePrices in Northern Ireland (2009)
Working Paper: Estimating the peace dividend: the impact of violence on house prices in Northern Ireland (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:09/18

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IFS Working Papers from Institute for Fiscal Studies The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emma Hyman ().