Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes

Gerard van den Berg, Antoine Bozio and Monica Costa Dias

No W18/10, IFS Working Papers from Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: Causal effects of a policy change on the hazard rates of a duration outcome variable are not identifi ed from a comparison of spells before and after the policy change when there is unobserved heterogeneity in the effects and no model structure is imposed. We develop a discontinuity approach that overcomes this by considering spells that include the moment of the policy change and by exploiting variation in the moment at which different cohorts are exposed to the policy change. We prove identi cation of average treatment effects on hazard rates without model structure. We estimate these effects by kernel hazard regression. We use the introduction of the NDYP program for young unemployed individuals in the UK to estimate average program participation effects on the exit rate to work as well as anticipation effects.

Keywords: policy evaluation; hazard rate; identi fication; causality; regression discontinuity; selectivity; kernel hazard estimation; local linear regression; average treatment effect; job search assistance; youth unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-03-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-eur and nep-hea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2020)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2020)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2020)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2015)
Working Paper: Policy Discontinuity and Duration Outcomes (2014)
Working Paper: Policy discontinuity and duration outcomes (2013)
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