Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle

Michael Artis, Massimiliano Marcellino and Tommaso Proietti

No 237, Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University

Abstract: In this paper we compare alternative approaches for dating the Euro area business cycle and analyzing its characteristics. First, we extend a commonly used dating procedure to allow for length, size and amplitude restrictions, and to compute the probability of a phase change. Second, we apply the modified algorithm for dating both the classical Euro area cycle and the deviation cycle, where the latter is obtained by a variety of methods, including a modified HP filter that reproduces the features of the BK filter but avoids end-point problems, and a production function based approach. Third, we repeat the dating exercise for the main Euro area countries, evaluate the degree of syncronization, and compare the results with the UK and the US. Fourth, we construct indices of business cycle diffusion, and assess how spread are cyclical movements throughout the economy. Finally, we repeat the dating exercise using monthly industrial production data, to evaluate whether the higher sampling frequency can compensate the higher variability of the series and produce a more accurate dating.

Date: 2003
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (70)

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2003/237.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle (2003)
Working Paper: Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle (2002)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igi:igierp:237

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy).
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().