Conflict, Climate and Cells: A disaggregated analysis

Mariaflavia Harari and Eliana La Ferrara

No 461, Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University

Abstract: We conduct a geographically and temporally disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the sub-national level in Africa over the period 1997-2011. Our units of observation are cells of 1 degree of latitude by 1 degree of longitude. We exploit within-year variation in the timing of weather shocks and in the growing season of different crops, as well as spatial variation in crop cover, to construct an original measure of shocks that are relevant for agricultural production. Employing a new drought index we show that negative climate shocks which occur during the growing season of the main crop cultivated in the cell have a sizeable and persistent effect on conflict incidence. We also use state-of-the-art spatial econometric techniques to test for the presence of temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict, and we ?find both to be sizeable and highly statistically signifi?cant. Exploiting variation in the type of conflict episode, we fi?nd that the impact of climate shocks on conflict is particularly signifi?cant when focusing on outcomes such as battles and violence against civilians. Our estimates can be used to predict how future warming scenarios affect the prevalence and diffusion of conflict.

Date: 2012
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (85)

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/wp/2012/461.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis (2018)
Working Paper: Conflict, Climate and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:igi:igierp:461

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://repec.unibocconi.it/igier/igi/

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy).
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().