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Toward a Theory of Evaluating Predictive Accuracy

Robert Kunst () and Adusei Jumah ()

No 162, Economics Series from Institute for Advanced Studies

Abstract: We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data, and double stochastic simulation. The concept is demonstrated using an empirical example of UK investment data.

Keywords: Forecasting; Time series; Investment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2004-11
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