The New Agenda With China
C. Fred Bergsten
No PB98-2, Policy Briefs from Peterson Institute for International Economics
China was the world's largest economy throughout most of recorded history and as recently as the late nineteenth century. The World Bank estimates that, on the basis of national purchasing power, China has already passed Germany to become the third-largest economy on the globe. It could move into second place ahead of stagnant Japan in a decade or so. China already holds the world's second-largest monetary reserves (to Japan) and is the second-largest recipient of foreign direct investment (to the United States). Some Australian and Chinese economists predict that China, even if it grows at "only" 7 percent, compared with 3 percent in the United States, will supersede the United States to again become the world's largest economy by 2020-2030.
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