Populist opposition is threatening progress on climate change

Edoardo Campanella and Robert Lawrence
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Edoardo Campanella: Harvard Kennedy School

No WP24-16, Working Paper Series from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: Driven by the push to decarbonize the world and achieve net zero emissions by 2050, a new anti-elite revolt is in the making in developed economies: If mainstream parties ignore the losers of the green transition as they did with globalization, climate populism not only will slow the adoption of climate policies but could also shake Western democracies. Climate policies are a perfect target for populist rhetoric: They rely on expert knowledge, entail globalist thinking and action, and the counterfactual nature of their benefits--avoiding disasters that would otherwise happen--gives ample fodder for conspiracy theories. And their costs are unevenly shared, hitting those at the bottom of the income distribution significantly harder than those at the top. Climate populism is particularly a problem on the far right, where doubts about science and opposition to international cooperation are strongest. Policies need to deal with this rising political opposition. Given the depth of their grievances, and as is often the case with populism, it is unlikely that voters antagonistic to climate policies will be persuaded by rational arguments. What will change their behavior are economic incentives. If green technologies are cheaper than fossil fuel ones, they will be adopted to save money rather than the planet. Thus the costs of the green transition need to be reduced through more open trade in the short run and more innovation in the long run. In addition, those who support climate policies need to be mobilized through more engaging political strategies, more emotional narratives, and more bottom-up policy approaches.

Keywords: Climate change; populism; green transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F6 P5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-pol
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