Global economic impacts of antimicrobial resistance

Roshen Fernando and Warwick McKibbin
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Roshen Fernando: World Bank

No WP25-12, Working Paper Series from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a natural phenomenon where microorganisms acquire resistance to antimicrobial medicines as part of their evolution. However, overuse, misuse, and underuse of antimicrobials in healthcare, agriculture, and industrial applications have aggravated AMR. Socioeconomic, sociocultural, demographic, and environmental factors have also contributed to AMR. These include climate change, demographic trends (such as the growth in population, population aging, population density, urbanization, and migration), and plastic and metal pollution. Given the widespread consumption of antimicrobials in healthcare, agriculture, and industry, worsening AMR threatens global economic stability, growth, and development. Thus, addressing AMR collectively is vital to preventing global economic disruptions from AMR. Using the G-Cubed model, a global multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model, the authors attempt to quantify the economic consequences of AMR under six scenarios via four main pathways: (1) labor productivity changes from morbidity and mortality due to AMR-related diseases, (2) agriculture productivity changes due to AMR effects on livestock, (3) risk premia changes in financial markets due to the differential exposure to AMR risks, and (4) fiscal expenditure changes to manage AMR risks. The authors account for demographic trends (growth in population and population aging) and physical climate risks when projecting changes in AMR-related diseases. They find a significant global economic burden of worsening AMR due to demographic change and climate change risks, as well as significant economic benefits of taking action to address AMR. They emphasize that a "one-health" approach to managing AMR will have substantial economic benefits over the coming decades.

Keywords: Antimicrobial Resistance; Antibiotic Resistance; Infectious Diseases; Macroeconomic Modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C53 C54 C55 C63 C68 E37 F01 F41 I10 Q51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06
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Related works:
Working Paper: Global Economic Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance (2024)
Working Paper: Global Economic Impacts of Antimicrobial Resistance (2024)
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