US wage patterns during and after the pandemic: Insights from a novel data source

Jeff Nezaj (), Nela Richardson () and Liv Wang ()
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Jeff Nezaj: ADP Research
Nela Richardson: ADP Research
Liv Wang: ADP Research

No WP25-5, Working Paper Series from Peterson Institute for International Economics

Abstract: This paper adds to a growing body of evidence on the underlying determinants of pandemic and postpandemic wage patterns by leveraging private-sector payroll records from ADP Inc., a dataset that comprises more than 25 million employees, or about 1 in 6 workers in the United States. The paper finds that the pandemic's disruption of industry sectors and workers drove large swings in pay growth as lower-wage workers left the labor force in the spring of 2020 and were hired back a year later. It also triggered a shift to larger year-over-year pay gains that so far have endured, albeit with some moderation.

Keywords: Wage Patterns; Labor Force; Employment; Labor Demand; Labor Supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J2 J3 J63 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04
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