How Persistent are International Capital Flows?

Vahagn Galstyan

The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series from IIIS

Abstract: This paper documents the dynamic properties of the current account, trade balance and international capital flows. For this purpose, three different approaches are taken: probit, non-parametric estimation and an asymmetric autoregression. The probabilistic approach shows that, in general, deficits and net inflows tend to be more persistent than surpluses and net outflows. This result is robust to either specification of pooled and country-specific probits. Current account reversals have a significant effect on the persistence of capital flows, especially in developing countries. The latter also have more persistent deficits and net inflows than industrial countries. The results of non-parametric estimation are in line with the results obtained from the probit. In the case of asymmetric autoregression, we find that surpluses are more persistent than deficits: although the probability of remaining in a surplus state is lower, the scale of surpluses tends to show more persistence than the scale of deficits.

Date: 2007-11-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba
Note: Length:
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.tcd.ie/triss/assets/PDFs/iiis/iiisdp232.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: How Persistent are International Capital Flows? (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp232

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series from IIIS 01. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Maeve ().