The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes

Sébastien Wälti
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sébastien Waelti

The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series from IIIS

Abstract: This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration dependence. Non-parametric estimates show that the pattern of duration dependence exhibits non-monotonic behaviour and that it differs across types of economies. This behaviour persists when we control for time-varying covariates in a proportional hazard specification. We conclude that how long a regime has lasted will affect the probability that it will end, in a non-monotonic fashion.

Keywords: Exchange rate regime; currency crisis; regime transition; duration models; survival analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F30 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-12-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-ifn
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes (2005)
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