An accuracy assessment of the global employment trends' unemployment rate forecasts

Evangelia. Bourmpoula and Christina. Wieser

Global Employment Trends Reports from International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department

Abstract: This study provides a quantitative assessment of the bias, accuracy, and efficiency of the Global Employment Trends (GET) global and regional unemployment rate forecasts made in three recent annual GET reports. After conducting a series of statistical tests, the results suggest that, on average across all countries with data availability, the GET unemployment rate forecasts are slightly biased; we over-predict one and two years ahead and under-predict three and four years ahead. However, this bias is not significant for one to three years ahead. Moreover, our tests for accuracy show that the shorter the prediction period, the more accurate our forecasts indicated by smaller forecast errors for shorter prediction periods and larger forecast errors for longer periods.

Keywords: unemployment; unemployed; forecast; evaluation; chômage; chômeurs; prévision; évaluation; desempleo; desempleados; predicción; evaluación (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 p.) pages
Date: 2014
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Published in Research department working paper series

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