Thailand: Selected Issues

International Monetary Fund

No 2008/194, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff baseline projections over the medium term. We analyze two main risk scenarios, and estimate that the output in Thailand may decline by up to 0.9 percent relative to the baseline. However, the adverse impact on Thai output is likely to be smaller than suggested above.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; market; Phillips curve; reaction function; turnover data; U.S. dollar transaction; upper bound; market turnover; demand shock; return volatility; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Output gap; Currencies; Global; Asia and Pacific (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43
Date: 2008-06-19
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