Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis-Updated Estimates and Further Considerations

International Monetary Fund

No 2016/130, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper provides preliminary debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of Greece. Debt was deemed sustainable, but not with high probability, when the first program was adopted in May 2010. The much deeper-than-expected recession necessitated significant debt relief in 2011–12 to maintain the prospect of restoring sustainability. Serious implementation problems caused a sharp deterioration in sustainability, raising fresh doubts about the realism of policy assumptions, especially from mid–2014. Developments since last summer suggest that a realignment of critical policy, and DSA assumptions can no longer be deferred if the DSA is to remain credible. Staff believes that revised program targets remain sufficiently ambitious to warrant continued support from Greece’s European partners.

Keywords: ISCR; CR; GDP; Greece; interest rate; proceeds; debt restructuring modality; DSA risk assessment; gross financing; debt burden benchmark; restructuring scenario; GLF loan tranche; debt restructuring scenario; debt sustainability consideration; debt restructuring solution; debt restructuring; public sector Debt Sustainability Analysis; debt path; Debt sustainability analysis; Fiscal stance; Loans; Debt sustainability; Debt relief; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2016-05-23
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43915 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfscr:2016/130

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().