Rwanda: Technical Assistance Report-Expanding the Nowcasting Toolbox at the National Bank of Rwanda

International Monetary Fund

No 2023/437, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This Technical Assistance (TA) report analyzes expanding the nowcasting toolbox at the National Bank of Rwanda (NBR). The mission built on the progress made during the March 2022 mission, which focused on improving the nowcasting framework for the key domestic variables and building tools for analyzing new data releases and assessing the nowcasting systems. The TA should continue to focus on the developments of the nowcasting framework for inflation and gross domestic product (GDP). Specifically, the new consumer price index (CPI) and GDP Near-Term Forecast (NTF) tools should be used on a monthly basis as part of the forecasting process and Forecasting and Policy Analysis System work at the NBR. The new CPI NTF system now includes the monthly forecasts of ten subgroups of the core CPI inflation as well as two subgroups of food inflation, thus enabling the assessment of the key drivers of inflation as well as the nature of inflation shocks. It also allows for the ‘real time’ monitoring of monthly inflation outcomes relative to the forecast.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Economic Forecasting and Analysis; Nowcasting; Central Banking.; TA mission; IMF Monetary; NBR staff; mission chief; inflation Dashboard-Contribution; IMF executive director; headline CPI inflation outcome; Inflation; Consumer price indexes; GDP forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2023-12-20
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=542814 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/437

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Akshay Modi ().