Guyana: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guyana

International Monetary Fund

No 2025/103, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guyana’s economy has grown rapidly over the past two decades, progressing from low-middle-income to high-income status—the only Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative participant to achieve this milestone. Oil production is fast ramping up and, together with strong non-oil growth and large-scale infrastructure investment, it is supporting the highest real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the world at a recorded average of 47 percent in 2022–20 24. The outlook remains highly favorable. Oil production will continue expanding rapidly, and non-oil real GDP growth is expected to remain strong, largely supported by the government’s efforts to invest in infrastructure, including for climate change adaptation, promote economic diversification, and improve welfare. Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. On the upside, further oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investment would improve Guyana’s long-term economic prospects, while expanding construction activity may support higher short-term non-oil GDP growth. Policy discussions focused on ensuring that Guyana’s exceptional resource potential is best harnessed to support the implementation of the authorities’ ambitious low-carbon development plans while ensuring macroeconomic stability and achieving inclusive and resilient growth.

Keywords: oil price impact; IMF FSAP; oil price decline; breakeven oil price; staff appraisal; Oil production; Public sector; Global; Caribbean; South America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 111
Date: 2025-05-07
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