Guatemala: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala

International Monetary Fund

No 2025/260, IMF Staff Country Reports from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that due to prudent macroeconomic management, Guatemala has maintained a resilient economy, achieved low inflation, ample policy buffers and, for the last few years, a positive current account; all these factors have contributed to increasingly favorable market access. However, reforms are needed to shift the country into a high investment/high growth equilibrium and to meaningfully reduce poverty. The macroeconomic outlook remains strong, though there is elevated uncertainty related to changing trade and migration policies abroad. Economic growth is expected to hold at 3.8 percent in 2025, with the sizeable fiscal impulse offsetting the softening in private demand. External headwinds are expected to keep growth around 3.5 percent in 2026–27, while in later years, growth could converge to 4 percent owing to infrastructure investments and ongoing reforms, including to improve governance and quality of public spending. Building on progress in recent years, the reform momentum needs to be stepped up to cement the authorities’ anti-corruption’s initiatives and advances in legislative measures.

Keywords: safeguards assessment policy; headline inflation; monetary policy stance; policy buffer; holdings of SDR; Remittances; Central bank policy rate; Budget planning and preparation; Liquidity management; Global; Central America; Western Hemisphere (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 85
Date: 2025-09-12
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