Assessing Country Risk: Selected Approaches

Ashvin Ahuja, Kevin Wiseman and Murtaza Syed

No 2017/008, IMF Technical Notes and Manuals from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.

Keywords: TNM; risk; market; debt; country risk; economy; Risk Assessment; Crisis Risk Models; Financial Crisis; Fiscal Crisis; Banking Crisis; Currency Crisis; Contagion Risk; interest rate; exchange market pressure index; Policy implementation risk; duration risk indicator; risk surveillance monitor; return on assets; fair value; coverage ratio; risk toolkit; crisis risk model; implementation risk; risk exercise; Sudden stops; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial statements; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28
Date: 2017-06-01
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