IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2025/152: Monetary Policy Transmission to Lending Rates: Evidence from Brazil

Daniel Leigh and Rui Xu

2025/151: Sovereign Debt Auctions with Strategic Interactions

Ricardo Alves Monteiro and Stelios Fourakis

2025/150: Money Market Fund Growth During Hiking Cycles: A Global Analysis

Kleopatra Nikolaou

2025/149: Options for Strengthening Ireland’s Fiscal Framework

Rossen Rozenov, Waikei Lam, Yang Yang and Yinjie Yu

2025/148: Accounting and Fiscal Reporting in EU Countries

Sage De Clerck, Joseph Cavanagh and Mariano D'Amore

2025/147: Trade Partners’ Responses to US Tariffs

Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta

2025/146: Financial Imbalances, Systemic Stress, and Macroprudential Implications

Knarik Ayvazyan and Etienne Yehoue

2025/145: Oil Shocks and Labor Market Developments

Diego Gomes, Lisa Kolovich and Hannah Yi Wei

2025/144: Building Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Persistent Temperature Changes: The Case of Peru

Zamid Aligishiev and Daria Kolpakova

2025/143: Industrial Policies and Firm Performance: A Nuanced Relationship

Rafael Machado Parente, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/142: The Impact of Debt and Deficits on Long-Term Interest Rates in the US

Davide Furceri, Carlos Goncalves and Hongchi Li

2025/141: Decrypting Crypto: How to Estimate International Stablecoin Flows

Marco Reuter

2025/140: Missing Imports in the Euro Area: Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition

Francesca Caselli and Allan Dizioli

2025/139: Navigating the Evolving Landscape of External Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa

Adrian Alter, Khushboo Khandelwal, Thibault Lemaire, Hamza Mighri, Can Sever and Luc Tucker

2025/138: Global Commodity Inflation Pass-through: Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States

Laron Alleyne and Patrick Blagrave

2025/137: Understanding Inflation Dynamics in Afghanistan

Karim Badr

2025/136: Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise?

Johannes Wiegand

2025/135: A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth

David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki and Christine Richmond

2025/134: Estimated Monthly National Accounts for the United States

Philip Barrett

2025/133: Global Financial Spillovers of Chinese Macroeconomic Surprises

Camila Gutierrez, Javier Turen and Alejandro Vicondoa

2025/132: Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions

Stefano Di Bucchianico, Mario di Serio, Matteo Fragetta and Giovanni Melina

2025/131: Strategies for Africa's Climate Resilience: Trade and Practices

Samantha Borkhoche, Eman Abdulla, Edward Gemayel, Vidhi Maheshwari and Faten Saliba

2025/130: The Drivers and Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Innovation: A Cross-Country Exploration

Zeina Hasna, Henry Hatton, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Kamiar Mohaddes and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/129: Demystifying Trade Patterns In A Fragmenting World

Tatjana Schulze and Weining Xin

2025/128: What Are Empirical Monetary Policy Shocks? Estimating the Term Structure of Policy News

Jonathan Adams and Philip Barrett

2025/127: Repo Market Volatility and the U.S. Debt Ceiling

Mai Dao, Brandon Tan and Jing Zhou

2025/126: Integrating Fragmented Networks: The Value of Interoperability in Money and Payments

Alexander Copestake, Divya Kirti, Maria Martinez Peria and Yao Zeng

2025/125: The EU's CBAM: Implications for Member States and Trading Partners

Geoffroy Dolphin and Gianluigi Ferrucci

2025/124: Personal Insolvency and Data Collection Systems

José Garrido, Jason Kilborn and Anjum Rosha

2025/123: Real Equilibrium Interest Rates in the Euro Area

Robert Beyer and Luis Brandão-Marques

2025/122: How Do Remittances Affect the Real Exchange Rate? An Empirical Investigation

Alina Carare, Juan Celis, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Yasumasa Morito

2025/121: A Quarterly Projection Model for Tonga

Sam Ouliaris, Celine Rochon and Daniel Taumoepeau

2025/120: Global Cross-Border Payments: A $1 Quadrillion Evolving Market?

Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat and Martina Hengge

2025/119: Testing the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in West and Central Africa

Abdoul Wane, Carlos de Resende and Jing Xie

2025/118: Should Tax Be King? The Debate over Tax Priority in Insolvency

Irving Aw, Brendan Crowley and José Garrido

2025/117: Forging Strength: Exploring the Dynamic Interplay between Institutions and State Capacity

Patrick Imam and João Tovar Jalles

2025/116: Growth, Interrupted: How Crises delay Global Convergence

Patrick Imam and Jonathan Temple

2025/115: Natural Bank Reliance

Hannah Winterberg

2025/114: Making the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework Fit for Purpose

Matthias Busse, Huidan Lin, Malhar Nabar and Jiae Yoo

2025/113: Lifting Binding Constraints on Growth in Europe: Actionable Priorities to Deepen the Single Market

Nathaniel Arnold, Allan Dizioli, Alexandra Fotiou, Jan-Martin Frie, Burcu Hacibedel, Tara Iyer, Huidan Lin, Malhar Nabar, Hui Tong and Frederik Toscani

2025/112: What is Needed for Convergence? The Role of Capital and Finance

Bryan Hardy and Can Sever

2025/111: Growth Strategies and Diversification in the Pacific Islands Countries

Gabriela Cugat

2025/110: No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in Greece

Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel

2025/109: From Text to Quantified Insights: A Large-Scale LLM Analysis of Central Bank Communication

Thiago Silva, Kei Moriya and Romain Veyrune

2025/108: Cyclical Fiscal Multipliers: Policy Mix and Financial Friction Puzzle

Zamid Aligishiev and Hamed Ghiaie

2025/107: Interest Rate Sensitivity Scenarios to Guide Monetary Policy

Allan Dizioli

2025/106: Digitalization: A Catalyst for Intergenerational Occupational Mobility?

Mame Astou Diouf, Boileau Loko and Rasmané Ouedraogo

2025/105: Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk

Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani and Mike West

2025/104: Europe’s National-Level Structural Reform Priorities

Nina Budina, Oyun Adilbish, Diego Cerdeiro, Romain Duval, Balázs Égert, Dmitriy Kovtun, Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Augustus Panton and Michelle Tejada

2025/103: Long and Short-term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States

Daniel Cunha, Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu and Pedro Juca Maciel

2025/102: Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

JaeBin Ahn and Brandon Tan

2025/101: Fiscal Multipliers in Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan

2025/100: Labor Market Consequences of Homicides: Evidence from Mexico

Lorenzo Aldeco Leo, Matteo Ghilardi and Hugo Tuesta

2025/099: Laying the Ground for Scaling up Climate Finance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Edward Gemayel, Samuele Rosa, Vidhi Maheshwari, Christoph Ungerer and Peter Lindner

2025/098: Do Industrial Policies Increase Trade Competitiveness?

Yueling Huang, Sandra Baquie, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, Yucheng Lu, Rafael Machado Parente and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/097: Macro-Financial Policies and Vulnerabilities in IMF-Supported Programs

Yazan Al-Karablieh, José Marzluf, Hector Perez-Saiz, Azzam Santosa and Fabian Valencia

2025/096: From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Nanyu Chen and Melih Firat

2025/095: QPM-Based Analysis of Weather Shocks and Monetary Policy in Developing Countries

Valeriu Nalban and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/094: The Rise and Retreat of US Inflation: An Update

Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra

2025/093: Nowcasting Global Trade from Space

Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi and Jasper Verschuur

2025/092: Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa

Geoffrey Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian Nield, Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga and Aiulu Tolovaa

2025/091: The Energy Origins of the Global Inflation Surge

Jorge Alvarez and Thomas Kroen

2025/090: Missing Home-Buyers and Rent Inflation: The Role of Interest Rates and Mortgage Underwriting Standards

Alessia De Stefani

2025/089: Leveraging Digital Technologies in Boosting Tax Collection

Manabu Nose, Nicola Pierri and Jiro Honda

2025/088: Testing the Liquidity Support Effects of the U.S. Treasury Buyback Program

Jing Zhou

2025/087: Preventing Fiscal Crises under Decentralization: Intergovernmental Policies and Institutions

Ryota Nakatani

2025/086: Debt-at-Risk

Davide Furceri, Domenico Giannone, Faizaan Kisat, Waikei Lam and Hongchi Li

2025/085: Using Simulations for Cyber Stress Testing Exercises

Tanai Khiaonarong, Kasperi Korpinen and Emran Islam

2025/084: Impact Dynamics of Natural Disasters and the Case of Pacific Island Countries

Choonsung Lim and Yue Zhou

2025/083: Fiscal Financing and Investment Irreversibility: The Role of Dividend Taxation

Matteo Ghilardi and Roy Zilberman

2025/082: Labor Market Matching Efficiency and Koreas Low Post-Pandemic Unemployment

Hua Chai

2025/081: Power Hungry: How AI Will Drive Energy Demand

Christian Bogmans, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Ganchimeg Ganpurev, Giovanni Melina, Andrea Pescatori and Sneha Thube

2025/080: Shifting Advantages: Do Subsidies Shape Cross-Border Investment?

Michele Ruta and Monika Sztajerowska

2025/079: Inflation Targeting and the Legacy of High Inflation

Luis Jácome, Nicolas Magud, Samuel Pienknagura and Martin Uribe

2025/078: K Wasn’t Built in a Day

Adriano Fernandes and Rodolfo Rigato

2025/077: IMF-ENV: Integrating Climate, Energy, and Trade Policies in a General Equilibrium Framework

Jean Chateau, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Sneha Thube and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

2025/076: The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap

Eugenio Cerutti, Antonio Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina Tavares and Philippe Wingender

2025/075: “Checking the Receipts” Audits of Emergency Finance: A preliminary analysis of the implementation of the Letter of Intent commitment on audits in 50 countries

Sebastiaan Pompe, Alice French, Martin Aldcroft and Camilla Fredriksen

2025/074: A New GCC Fiscal Era – A Look at the Macro and Firm-Level Impact of Tax Reforms

Anja Baum, Dorothy Nampewo and Greta Polo

2025/073: Do ESG Considerations Matter for Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads?

Carmen Avila-Yiptong, Mahamoud Islam, Ayah Said and Chima Simpson-Bell

2025/072: Firm Financing During Sudden Stops: Can Governments Substitute Markets?

Miguel Acosta-Henao, Andrés Fernández, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

2025/071: Digital Financial Inclusion and Income Inequality in China

Yan Shen, Fei Han and Yanlong Li

2025/070: Europe’s Debt (Un)Sustainability: Looking Through Bohn’s Magnifying Glass

Ales Bulir and Khyati Chauhan

2025/069: Bidding Behavior in Italian Treasury Auctions: The Role of Top-ups

Daniela Marchettini

2025/068: AI Adoption and Inequality

Emma Rockall, Marina Tavares and Carlo Pizzinelli

2025/067: AI and Productivity in Europe

Florian Misch, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli and Galen Sher

2025/066: Unconventional Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies

Jesper Lindé, Marcin Kolasa and Stefan Laseen

2025/065: Demand for Safe Assets and Spillovers from the Global Dollar Cycle

Cian Allen, Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boer and Racha Moussa

2025/064: Micro-Evidence on the Consumption Impact of Income-Support Policies During COVID-19

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Emiliano Luttini and Luca Ricci

2025/063: The Impact of Labor Litigation Cases on Firm-level Productivity in Brazil

Swarnali Hannan and Samuel Pienknagura

2025/062: Credit Risk Where It’s Due: Carbon Pricing and Firm Defaults

Stefan Löschenbrand, Martin Maier, Laurent Millischer and Florian Resch

2025/061: Trade Reform in Services: Structural Change and Production Networks

Adam Jakubik and Wentao Zhou

2025/060: Privacy Technologies & The Digital Economy

Parma Bains and Tamas Gaidosch

2025/059: Fiscal Determinants of Domestic Sovereign Bond Yields in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Manabu Nose and Jeta Menkulasi

2025/058: Monetary Shocks and Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Job Vacancy Postings

Serhan Cevik, Alice Fan and Sadhna Naik

2025/057: Covered Interest Parity in Emerging Markets: Measurement and Drivers

Mai Dao and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

2025/056: Could Digital Currencies Lead to the Disappearance of Cash from the Market?

Marco Pani and Rodolfo Maino

2025/055: Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe

Serhan Cevik

2025/054: The Insurer Channel of Monetary Policy

Divya Kirti and Akshat Singh

2025/053: Interactions Between Public and Private Sector Wages and Inflation in Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan