IMF Working Papers

From International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA.
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2026/037: Tilting the Balance Towards Equity: Capital Controls and the Structure of External Liabilities

Tobias Krahnke and Wenjie Li

2026/036: A Novel Quarterly Macroeconomic Forecasting Framework: Illustration on the Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Tibor Hlédik, Rilind Kabashi, Maria Arakelyan, Belma Colakovic and Elma Hasanović

2026/035: How Effectively Can Current LLMs Analyze Macrofinancial Issues?

Paola Ganum and Tohid Atashbar

2026/034: Cadasters, Asset Tangibility, and Growth

Can Sever

2026/033: Risk Propagation in the European Banking System: Amplification Effect from NBFIs and Market Risks

Laura Valderrama and Richard Varghese

2026/032: Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain Kabundi, Cedric Okou and Antonio Spilimbergo

2026/031: Who Pays When Tax Administration Improves? Revenue, Compliance, and Behavioral Responses to Georgia’s Large Taxpayer Office

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Mikheil Chikviladze, Mitali Das, Elguja Loliashvili and Mona Wang

2026/030: Optimal Exchange Rate Policy with Oil Shocks

Emrehan Aktuğ and Abolfazl Rezghi

2026/029: Intermediation, Interrupted? Bank-Level Analysis of Interest Spreads in Montenegro

Serhan Cevik and Amit Kara

2026/028: Sowing Seeds of Mobility: The Uneven Impact of Land Reform

Ting Chen, Jiajia Gu, L. Rachel Ngai and Jin Wang

2026/027: Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China

Boele Bonthuis, Yongquan Cao and Christoph Freudenberg

2026/026: From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu and Xinrui Zhao

2026/025: Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

Mustapha Abderrahim, Riad Mansouri, Fatma Zohra Ouail, Sara Abadi, Kenza Elkrim, Mohamed-Fariz Zidane, Philippe Karam, Gyorgy Molnar, Karel Musil and Valeriu Nalban

2026/024: Understanding and Forecasting Inflation in Timor-Leste

Kohei Asao and Raju Huidrom

2026/023: Banking on Nonbanks

Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Melih Firat and Benedikt Kagerer

2026/022: Distributional Impacts of Inflation Accounting for Behavioral Effects and Real Assets

Kardelen Cicek, Julieth Pico-Mejia, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro and Alberto Tumino

2026/021: Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure of Capital Flow Management

Wenjie Li

2026/020: Nowcasting Economic Growth with Machine Learning and Satellite Data

Eurydice Fotopoulou, Iyke Maduako, M. Belen Sbrancia and Prachi Srivastava

2026/019: Taste-based Investing, Government Policies and Competition in Financial Intermediation

Damien Capelle

2026/018: Still Packing a Punch: Monetary Policy Transmission in a New Cross-Country High-Frequency Dataset

Ece Ozge Emeksiz, Güneş Kamber, Julia Otten and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

2026/017: U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account: Unpacking Trade and Financial Channels

Adam Jakubik and Yuting Wei

2026/016: Motivating Capital Controls: Evidence from New Measures of Capital Flow Restrictions

Chikako Baba, Ricardo Cervantes, Salim Darbar, Annamaria Kokenyne and Viktoriya Zotova

2026/015: The Welfare Implications of Job Retention Schemes

John Bluedorn, Jorge Mondragon, Ippei Shibata and Marina Mendes Tavares

2026/014: Structural Reforms in Saudi Arabia Since 2016

David Koll, Andrea Medici, Marina Mendes Tavares and Masashi Saito

2026/013: Understanding China’s 2024–25 Frontloading from the Lens of Product-Level Export Baskets

Jason Lu and Dimitre Milkov

2026/012: The Fiscal Multipliers Narrative of Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khalil Bechchani, Antonio David and Thibault Lemaire

2026/011: A Narrative Fiscal Consolidation Dataset for Sub-Saharan Africa

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khalil Bechchani, Antonio David and Thibault Lemaire

2026/010: Market Access and High Spread Issuances

Raphael Espinoza, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luis Carlos Ibanez-Thomae and Flora Lutz

2026/009: Who Captures Export Windfalls? Exchange Rates, Export Profitability, and National Saving under Dominant-Currency Pricing

Bas Bakker

2026/008: Financial Inclusion, Credit Booms, and Financial Stability Risk

Adolfo Barajas, Kensuke Sakamoto and Rasool Zandvakil

2026/007: Fintech Competition and Banks’ Shrinking Margins in Brazil

Rui Xu

2026/006: Services Inflation and the Exchange Rate in Türkiye

Tara Iyer, Agustin Roitman and James Walsh

2026/005: From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin

Marco Gross and Richard Senner

2026/004: The Nuanced Role of Government Credit in Monetary Policy Transmission

Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Leila Aghabarari and Bernardus Van Doornik

2026/003: A Silver Lining? The European Energy Crisis through the Lens of Directed Technical Change

Ting Lan, Manasa Patnam, Frederik Toscani and Claire Li

2026/002: The Integration of Global Value Chain in the EU: Stylized Facts and Drivers

Younghun Shim, Iglika Vassileva and Mengxue Wang

2026/001: The Economic Implications of the Energy Transition in Asia-Pacific

John Spray, Sneha Thube and Alice Tianbo Zhang

2025/270: Underpriced and Overused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update

Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia Huitron, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa and Nate Vernon-Lin

2025/269: Financial Constraints and the Effectiveness of Green Financial Policies

Damien Capelle, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Divya Kirti, Germán Villegas-Bauer and Sharan Banerjee

2025/268: Nowcasting GCC GDP: A Machine Learning Solution for Enhanced Non-Oil GDP Prediction

Greta Polo, Yuan Gao Rollinson, Yevgeniya Korniyenko and Tongfang Yuan

2025/267: Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World

Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem Nechi and Subi Suvetha Velkumar

2025/266: Brazil's VAT Reform: Ensuring Revenue Neutrality

Ana Cebreiro Gomez, Christina Kolerus, Guilherme Dal Pizzol, Pablo Moreira and Miguel Pecho

2025/265: Stuck in the Middle with You? An Assessment of Income Dynamics in Indonesia

Florischa Tresnatri, Akbar Nikmatullah Dachlan, Galuh Chandra Wibowo and Rifat Pasha

2025/264: Cyclical Inequality in the Cost of Living and Implications for Monetary Policy

Ting Lan, Lerong Li and Minghao Li

2025/263: Playing with Blocs: Quantifying Decoupling

Barthélémy Bonadio, Zhen Huo, Elliot Kang, Andrei Levchenko, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Hiroshi Toma and Petia Topalova

2025/262: Changes in Bank Lending Standards and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Mongolia

Tigran Poghosyan, Davaasukh Damdinjav, Dulamzaya Batjargal, Tserendavaa Tsend-Ayush, Bat-Orgil Bat-Erdene and Gerelmaa Baatarchuluun

2025/261: Optimal FX Interventions with Limited Reserves

Marcin Kolasa, Oliver Vogt and Pawel Zabczyk

2025/260: Can Healthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from Korea

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Helena Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Kemal Ozhan

2025/259: Reforms to Reduce China’s High Household Savings

Yizhi Xu, Fan Zhang, Rongyu Cui and Ding Hua

2025/258: Speaking to the Markets: The Role of IMF Announcements in Investors’ Confidence

Beatrice Maryline Sagna and Solo Zerbo

2025/257: Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area

Giovanni Sciacovelli

2025/256: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?

Marijn Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea Presbitero and Zhao Zhang

2025/255: Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence

Michael Barczay, Shafik Hebous, Fayçal Sawadogo and Jean-François Wen

2025/254: The Food and Agriculture Sector in IMF Publications: A Text-Mining Analysis

Tewodaj Mogues and Papa Niang

2025/253: Good News Travels Fast: Global Demand Shocks, Oil Futures, and Emerging Markets Dynamics

Felipe Beltrán, David Coble Fernandez, Manuel Escobar and Felipe Rojas

2025/252: GDP Nowcasting Performance of Traditional Econometric Models vs Machine-Learning Algorithms: Simulation and Case Studies

Klakow Akepanidtaworn and Korkrid Akepanidtaworn

2025/251: Macro-Criticality of Water Resources

Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos

2025/250: Carbon Risk in Loan Pricing: Commitment Channels and Real Effects

Yao Dong, Martina Hengge, Fabian Valencia and Richard Varghese

2025/249: Crop Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Research and Development

Christian Ebeke and Mireille Ntsama Etoundi

2025/248: Inequality, Household Debt, and the Role of Social Protection in Thailand

Piyaporn Chote, Corinne Delechat, Seunghwan Kim, Ying Xu and Tamon Yungvichit

2025/247: Demographics and Consumption in Asia Toward 2050

Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano and Jeongwon Son

2025/246: The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies

Selim Elekdag, Mananirina Razafitsiory and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/245: Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30

Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin and Sunalika Singh

2025/244: The Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Volatility on Food Prices—Evidence for Uganda

Christopher Adam and Prabhmeet Kaur Matta

2025/243: Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles

Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova

2025/242: Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data

Marina Conesa Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Nan Li, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou and Andrea Presbitero

2025/241: Minimum Wage and Employment: Sectoral and Regional Perspectives

Yan Chen and Jiaxiong Yao

2025/240: Trade Dynamics in Sovereign Debt Crises

Tamon Asonuma, Marcos Chamon, Yasumasa Morito and Akira Sasahara

2025/239: A Search-Based Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions

Flavien Moreau and Semih Üslü

2025/238: The Role of a Stabilizing Expenditure Rule in Fostering Macro-Fiscal Stability: Simulation-Based Evidence from Poland

Andrzej Torój, Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Rafał Chmura, Kareem Ismail, Dominika Kroschel, Waikei Lam, Agnieszka Szczypińska and Bartłomiej Wiśnicki

2025/237: Macroeconomic Effects of Lowering South Africa’s Inflation Target

Jana Bricco ('Gieck'), Mario Mansilla, Delia Velculescu and Philippe Wingender

2025/236: Behind Schedule? Assessing Global Developments in the Provision of Economic Statistics

Josefine Quast

2025/235: The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

Francisco Roldan and Cesar Sosa Padilla

2025/234: Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils Lehr and Pascual Restrepo

2025/233: Agricultural Distortions and International Migration

Braulio Britos, Manuel Hernandez and Danilo Trupkin

2025/232: The Macroeconomic Impact of Earthquakes on Growth: A Tale from Two Datasets

Rabah Arezki, Youssouf Camara, Patrick Imam and Kangni Kpodar

2025/231: The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation Expectations

Francisco Arizala, Santiago Bazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama and Shiqing Hua

2025/230: The ENV-FIBA Model for Climate Risk Analysis: Framework, Model Details and Guide

Marco Gross, Jinhyuk Yoo, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Salim Dehmej, Zulma Barrail and Hannah Sheldon

2025/229: The Labor Market Implications of Healthy Aging

Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Helena Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin and Galip Ozhan

2025/228: Credit Loss in Translation: Informing Bank Provisions and Capital Buffer Requirements with Forward-Looking Credit Loss Distributions

Marco Gross and Laurent Millischer

2025/227: Macroeconomic Effects and Spillovers from Bank of Japan Unconventional Monetary Policy

Yan Carrière-Swallow, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Danila Smirnov

2025/226: Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans

Stephen Ayerst, Nina Chebotareva, Oksana Dynnikova, Amanda Edwards and Charles Zhang

2025/225: A Quantitative Approach to Central Bank Haircuts and Counterparty Risk Management

Yuji Sakurai

2025/224: From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate

Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa

2025/223: Maximum Sustainable Debt Across Countries: An Assessment using P-Theory

Yongquan Cao, Wei Jiang, Waikei Lam and Neng Wang

2025/222: Industrial Policy Since the Great Financial Crisis

Simon Evenett, Adam Jakubik, Jaden Kim, Fernando Martín, Samuel Pienknagura, Michele Ruta, Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang and Rafael Machado Parente

2025/221: Currency Crises in the Post-Bretton Woods Era: A New Dataset of Large Depreciations

Alexander Culiuc and Hyunmin Park

2025/220: Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity

Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska and Yuting Wei

2025/219: Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration

Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev and Manabu Nose

2025/218: Earthquakes and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Rabah Arezki, Patrick Imam, Kangni Kpodar and Dao Le-Van

2025/217: Parameter Proliferation in Nowcasting: Issues and Approaches—An Application to Nowcasting China’s Real GDP

Paul Cashin, Fei Han, Ivy Sabuga, Jing Xie and Fan Zhang

2025/216: Emerging Market Cycles: Twin-Balance Sheet Conditions and Macro- Financial Linkages

Soumya Bhadury, Bhanu Pratap and Jay Surti

2025/215: Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius

Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili and Valeriu Nalban

2025/214: Shaping Services Trade: The Heterogeneous Effects of Withholding Taxes

Li Liu, Alexander Klemm and Parijat Lal

2025/213: The Israeli Structural Model

Daniel Baksa, Yotam Peterfreund, Nadav Podoler, Ivy Sabuga, Tanya Slobodnitsky and Luis-Felipe Zanna

2025/212: Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge: A Comparative Analysis of IT and Non-IT Central Banks

Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan

2025/211: Can Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies Improve the Delivery of Social Safety Nets?

Denis Nikitin, Johan Schmalholz and Carolina Bloch

2025/210: Inflation Determinants in Kazakhstan: A tale of (at least) two stories

Gregorio Impavido

2025/209: Closing the Gap: How Tax Administration Performance Shapes Compliance

Katherine Baer, Patricio Barra and Juan Carlos Benitez

2025/208: Commodity-driven Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Does Size Matter?

Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, Maximiliano Jerez-Osses, Vida Maver, Jorge Miranda-Pinto and Jean-Marc Natal