Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach

Camille Logeay and Sven Schreiber

No 03-2005, IMK Working Paper from IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute

Abstract: The authors analyse the macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies). Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output the authors produce out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001. A comparison of these forecasts -which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts- to the realised values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.

Keywords: unemployment; work-sharing; France; VECM; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E24 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2005
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach (2006)
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