Indian growth is not overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong

Ashima Goyal and Abhishek Kumar ()
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Abhishek Kumar: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research

Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India

Abstract: Subramanian (2019) argues that indicators like growth in export, import and private credit can be used to predict economic growth across countries. He finds these indicators were able to predict Indian growth before 2011 but fail to do so after the GDP estimation methodology was changed in 2011. This implies Indian growth was overestimated by 2.5 per annum post 2011. But on removing various flaws in his data and procedures used, we find these indicators underestimate growth before 2011 too. The most reasonable specification suggests that the underestimation before 2011 was higher than underestimation post 2011. Moreover, growth in a large number of countries is found to be either overestimated or underestimated, based on these indicators. His empirical design is therefore flawed. These regressions cannot be used for predicting growth or for concluding Indian growth is overestimated or for pointing to problems in the estimation methodology.

Keywords: Indian growth; overestimation; growth indicators; prediction regressions; impact evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O47 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2019-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Indian growth is not overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2019-019

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