Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis

Ritabrata Bose () and Ashima Goyal
Additional contact information
Ritabrata Bose: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research

Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India

Abstract: We study the structure and dating of disaggregated Indian industrial cycles and spectral causality from different policy parameters to these cycles. The scattered pattern of peaks and troughs after 2013, suggests some industries continued to do well during an extended slowdown. Post 2011 industrial cycles have been shallow and short. The exchange rate, currency, credit, nominal and real interest rates all affect industry cycles, but differences in impact by industry type may be due to the structure of the economy. Cash and credit are more important for consumer non-durables, while interest rates affect consumer durables and capital goods. Interest rates do matter but in combination with currency and credit. Co-movement across disaggregated industry points to some common drivers. Stabilization policies need to be used more and fine-tuned based on research. Results on the dating and duration of industry cycles, their cyclicality, phase shifts, amplitude, lead-lag sectors, duration asymmetry and co-movement can help design appropriate policies.

Keywords: Industrial cycles; co-movement; coherence; lead/lag; business cycle dating; spectral causality; macroeconomic stabilization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E23 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2020-033.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2020-033

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Shamprasad M. Pujar ().