Modelling the Cyclical Behaviour of Wine Production in the Douro Region Using a Time-Varying Parameters Approach

Mario Cunha ()
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Mario Cunha: Universidade do Porto
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Christian R. Richter

No 2010.1, Working Papers from International Network for Economic Research - INFER

Abstract: This paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of the wine production in Portugal’s Douro region during the period of 1932 to 2008. In general, wine production is characterised by large fluctuations. These fluctuations may cover the existence of deterministic cycles. Hence, in this paper, we decompose the wine production’s variance in order to find the dominating production cycles In the next step we try to explain those cycles using a dependent variable, namely the medium spring temperature for the period 1967 to 2008. We estimated a Time-Varying Autoregressive Model, which could explain 76% of wine variability (R2=0.76; n=69; p

Keywords: Spectral Analysis; Time-varying spectra; Kalman filter; Wine forecast; Port Wine; Climate variability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec
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