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Skewed logistic distribution for statistical temperature post-processing in mountainous areas

Manuel Gebetsberger (), Reto Stauffer (), Georg J. Mayr () and Achim Zeileis ()

Working Papers from Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck

Abstract: Non-homogeneous post-processing is often used to improve the predictive performance of probabilistic ensemble forecasts. A common quantity to develop, test, and demonstrate new methods is the near-surface air temperature frequently assumed to follow a Gaussian response distribution. However, Gaussian regression models with only few covariates are often not able to account for site-specific local features leading to strongly skewed residuals. This residual skewness remains even if many covariates are incorporated. Therefore, a simple refinement of the classical non-homogeneous Gaussian regression model is proposed to overcome this problem by assuming a skewed response distribution to account for possible skewness. This study shows a comprehensive analysis of the performance of non-homogeneous post-processing for 2m temperature for three different site types comparing Gaussian, logistic, and skewed logistic response distributions. Satisfying results for the skewed logistic distribution are found, especially for sites located in mountainous areas. Moreover, both alternative model assumptions but in particular the skewed response distribution, can improve on the classical Gaussian assumption with respect to overall performance, sharpness, and calibration of the probabilistic predictions.

Keywords: Statistical post-processing Probabilistic temperature forecast; Skewed distribution; Distributional regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C15 C16 C51 C61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2018-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
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