Elasticidade de Substituição das Importações no Brasil

Honorio Kume and Guida Piani

No 1678, Discussion Papers from Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA

Abstract: As estimativas dos impactos sobre as importações devido a acordos comerciais dependem fundamentalmente das elasticidades de substituição (ESs) entre as importações de diferentes fornecedores estrangeiros. Este trabalho estima as ESs das importações do Brasil, para 42 setores da matriz de insumo-produto de 2005, destacando as diferenças nos custos de transporte e na tarifa efetivamente paga entre os produtos, segundo os países de procedência. As elasticidades obtidas são significantes a 1% para 39 setores, com média simples de 6,6 e amplitude de 4,7 e 13,7. A disponibilidade das ESs próprias para o Brasil permitirá obter cálculos mais precisos dos efeitos provocados por uma eventual participação brasileira em novos acordos de liberalização comercial. Estimates of the impacts on imports due to trade agreements depend fundamentally on the elasticity of substitution between imports from different foreign suppliers. This paper estimate the elasticity of substitution for Brazilian imports, for 42 sectors of input-output table for 2005, highlighting the differences in transportation costs and the effectively paid tariffs between products, depending on the country of origin. The elasticities obtained are statistically significant for 1% to 39 sectors, with the arithmetic average of 6.6 and the amplitude of 4.7 and 13.7. The availability of the own elasticities for Brazil will provide more accurate calculations of the effects of a possible Brazilian participation in new trade liberalization agreements.

Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2011-12
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