Are Market Views on Banking Industry Useful for Forecasting Economic Growth?

Van Son Lai, Xiaoxia Ye and Lu Zhao

No 2018-001, Working Papers from Department of Research, Ipag Business School

Abstract: Using two market-based variables, namely the regulatory forbearance fraction imbedded in the bank capital and the market-valued of the bank equity-to-assets ratio, derived from market equity and total liabilities from listed commercial banks in the U.S. and three countries (Japan, China, India) and a region (Southeast Asia) in Asia, we show compelling evidence that market views on banking industry have significant predictive power on economic growth after controlling for stock, bond, and inflation variables. The current paper further contributes to the literature on interaction between the financial intermediation and the economic growth by showing evidence of market perceptions of the banking industry impacting the real economic activities.

Keywords: Bank regulatory; Regulatory forbearance; Forecasting; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G17 G21 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2018-01-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Are market views on banking industry useful for forecasting economic growth? (2019)
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