Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?

Jose Gomez-Gonzalez, Jorge Uribe and Oscar Valencia ()

No 202218, IREA Working Papers from University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics

Abstract: Higher economic complexity of a country reduces the probability of suffering a fiscal crisis between 46% and 57%. Along with institutional factors, complexity is shown to be sufficient to describe the risk of facing episodes of fiscal distress. On the contrary, the role of variables frequently emphasized by the literature and policy markets, such as the debt-output ratio, real growth, inflation, terms of trade or fiscal balance, is very modest or insignificant. Development strategies that aim for greater economic complexity also promise to reduce countries’ fiscal vulnerability.

Keywords: Debt-sustainability; Sovereign-crises; Fiscal-revenues; Duration analysis; Debt-to-GDP ratio. JEL classification: E02; E44; E62; F34. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2022-11, Revised 2022-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2022/202218.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis? (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ira:wpaper:202218

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IREA Working Papers from University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alicia García ().