Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices

Fengxia Dong

Staff General Research Papers Archive from Iowa State University, Department of Economics

Abstract: The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessellsï¾’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

Date: 2005-06-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-bec
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published in Food Policy, June 2006, vol. 31 no. 3, pp. 260-271

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Related works:
Journal Article: The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices (2006)
Working Paper: Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The (2005)
Working Paper: Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:isu:genres:12379

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