The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment

Govinda Timilsina (), John Beghin (), Dominique van der Mensbrugghe () and Simon Mevel

Staff General Research Papers Archive from Iowa State University, Department of Economics

Abstract: We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

Keywords: biofuels; ethanol; biodiesel; land use; food supply; food prices; CGE model; impacts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 Q Q17 Q42 Q48 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp and nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

Published in Agricultural Economics 2012, vol. 43 no. 3, pp. 315-332

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Related works:
Journal Article: The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment (2012)
Working Paper: The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply: a global CGE assessment (2012)
Working Paper: The impacts of biofuels targets on land-use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment (2012)
Working Paper: The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply: a global CGE assessment (2010)
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