A risk assessment framework for the socio-economic impacts of electricity transmission infrastructure failure due to space weather

Edward J. Oughton, Mike Hapgood, Gemma S. Kelly, Ciaran Beggan, Alan Thomson, Mark Gibbs, Catharine Burnett, Trevor Gaunt, Markos Trichas, Rabia Dada and Richard B. Horne
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Richard B. Horne: Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

Working Papers from Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

Abstract: Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of space weather, despite a growing grey literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigour. In this analysis, we therefore provide a framework for assessing the potential socio-economic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from Geomagnetic Disturbances, applying it to the British high-voltage electricity transmission network. Socio-economic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three-part methodology which includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to Geomagnetically Induced Currents, and (iii) testing the socio-economic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step towards the standardisation of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington-sized 1-in-100-year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the GDP loss to the UK could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington-sized 1-in-100-year event to £0.9 billion.

Date: 2018
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