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Forecasting interest rates

Greg Duffee

Economics Working Paper Archive from The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics

Abstract: This chapter discusses what the asset-pricing literature concludes about the forecastability of interest rates. It outlines forecasting methodologies implied by this literature, including dynamic, no-arbitrage term structure models and their macro-finance extensions. It also reviews the empirical evidence concerning the predictability of future yields on Treasury bonds and future excess returns to holding these bonds. In particular, it critically evaluates theory and evidence that variables other than current bond yields are useful in forecasting.

Date: 2012-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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