150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?

Martin Stürmer
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Martin Stuermer

2013 Papers from Job Market Papers

Abstract: My paper is the first to provide long-run evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I assemble and analyze a new data set of prices and production levels of copper, lead, tin, zinc, and crude oil from 1840 to 2010. Price fluctuations are primarily driven by demand rather than supply shocks. Demand shocks affect the price persistently for up to 15 years, whereas the effect of supply shocks persists for a maximum of 5 years. My paper shows that price surges caused by rapid industrialization are a recurrent phenomenon throughout history. Mineral commodity prices return to their declining or stable trends in the long run.

JEL-codes: E30 N50 Q31 Q33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-12-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: 150 YEARS OF BOOM AND BUST: WHAT DRIVES MINERAL COMMODITY PRICES? (2018)
Working Paper: 150 years of boom and bust: what drives mineral commodity prices? (2014)
Working Paper: 150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices? (2013)
Working Paper: 150 years of boom and bust: what drives mineral commodity prices? (2013)
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