Earthquake risk reduction and land value along geographic boundaries of extremely high-risk urban districts in Tokyo

Mizuki Kawabata, Michio Naoi and Shohei Yasuda
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Mizuki Kawabata: Faculty of Economics, Keio University
Shohei Yasuda: College of Economics, Nihon University

No 2023-013, Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series from Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University

Abstract: We examine the impact of earthquake risk reduction on land values along the geographic boundaries of dense urban districts with an extremely high risk of earthquakes (high-risk DUDs) in Tokyo. Our analysis employs a spatial regression discontinuity design that takes advantage of the discontinuity in earthquake risk at the high-risk DUD boundary. Our conservative estimate indicates that removing high-risk DUDs increases land value by 5.2% near the boundary. Moreover, we find that the boundary effect increases as the road width at the boundary widens, suggesting that the sample limited to wide roads mitigates the spatial spillover of fire risk.

Keywords: Earthquake risk reduction; land value; spatial regression discontinuity design; Tokyo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 Q54 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2023-07-10
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