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Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments

Robin Braun () and Ralf Brüggemann ()
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Ralf Brüggemann: Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany

No 2017-07, Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz from Department of Economics, University of Konstanz

Abstract: We identify structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models by combining sign restrictions with information in external instruments and proxy variables. We incorporate the proxy variables by augmenting the SVAR with equations that relate them to the structural shocks. Our modeling framework allows to simultaneously identify different shocks using either sign restrictions or an external instrument approach, always ensuring that all shocks are orthogonal. The combination of restrictions can also be used to identify a single shock. This entails discarding models that imply structural shocks that have no close relation to the external proxy time series, which narrows down the set of admissible models. Our approach nests the pure sign restriction case and the pure external instrument variable case. We discuss full Bayesian inference, which accounts for both, model and estimation uncertainty. We illustrate the usefulness of our method in SVARs analyzing oil market and monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that combining sign restrictions with proxy variable information is a promising way to sharpen results from SVAR models.

Keywords: Structural vector autoregressive model; sign restrictions; external instruments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C11 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-mac
Date: 2017-08-11
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