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Reuters Sentiment and Stock Returns

Matthias Uhl

No 11-288, KOF Working papers from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Abstract: We examine the statistical power of fundamental and behavioural factors with regards to stock returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Index. With a novel sentiment dataset from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles, we find signifcant correlations between Reuters sentiment and stock returns. We show with vector autoregression and error correction models that sentiment can explain and predict changes in stock returns better than macroeconomic factors. Considering positive and negative sections of Reuters sentiment, we find that negative sentiment performs better in simple trading strategies to predict stock returns than positive sentiment, while the sentiment effect remains over months.

Keywords: Reuters sentiment; Stock returns; Out-of-sample forecasts; Vector error correction model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2011-09
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