A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

Torben Tranaes (), Nils Nils Groes and Anders Holm ()
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Nils Nils Groes: AKF, Institute of Local Government Studies, Denmark

No 93-03, Discussion Papers from University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics

Abstract: We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the "strength" in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.

Keywords: labour demand by education; distribution of education by industry; forecasting labour demand by education (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J23 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 1993-03
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Published in: Labour, 1994, 8(2) pp 317-30

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kud:kuiedp:9303

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