Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions

Michael McAleer, Philip Hans Franses and Chia-Lin Chang ()

No 779, KIER Working Papers from Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research

Abstract: It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current revisions on one-period lagged revisions. Under weak-form efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the literature suggest that the null hypothesis of zero correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions is rejected quite frequently, where the correlation can be either positive or negative. In this paper we propose a methodology to be able to interpret such non-zero correlations in a straightforward manner. Our approach is based on the assumption that forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and expert intuition. The interpretation of the sign of the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions depends on the process governing intuition, and the correlation between intuition and news.

Keywords: Evaluating forecasts; Macroeconomic forecasting; Rationality; Intuition; Weak-form efficiency; Fixed-event forecasts. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E27 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-for
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http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP779.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions (2013)
Working Paper: Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions (2013)
Working Paper: Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions (2013)
Working Paper: Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions (2011)
Working Paper: Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions (2011)
Working Paper: Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions (2011)
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