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Exuberance in the U.K. Regional Housing Markets

Alisa Yevgenyevna Yusupova, Efthymios Pavlidis, Ivan Paya () and David Peel

No 168117137, Working Papers from Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department

Abstract: We combine the estimation of a structural model with inference based on recently developed recursive unit root tests to analyse the behaviour of regional real estate markets in the U.K. over the last four decades. We find two episodes, the late 1980s and the early and mid-2000s, when all regional house prices experienced explosive dynamics above and beyond factors such as housing supply relative to demographics, income, regional spillovers and credit availability. This is the first econometric analysis to provide evidence that would endorse the view that ‘bubbles’, with a particular spatial pattern, are a feature of UK regional housing markets.

Keywords: Regional house prices; Structural housing model; Cointegration; Generalised supremum ADF; Speculative bubbles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 G12 R30 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-geo and nep-ure
Date: 2017
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