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About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy. Application for France, 1980-1997

Louis de Mesnard ()

No 2000-04, LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) from LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne

Abstract: This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely. Keywords :Input-Output ; Demand ; Supply ; Change ; RAS ; Biproportion.

JEL-codes: C63 C67 D57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-06
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Published : “Forecast Output Coincidence and Biproportion: Two Criteria to Determine the Orientation of an Economy. Comparison for France (1980-1997)”, in Applied Economics, 2002, 34, 16: 2085-91.

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Working Paper: About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997) (2000) Downloads
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