About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy. Application for France, 1980-1997
Louis de Mesnard ()
No 2000-04, LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) from LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne
This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely. Keywords :Input-Output ; Demand ; Supply ; Change ; RAS ; Biproportion.
JEL-codes: C63 C67 D57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Published : “Forecast Output Coincidence and Biproportion: Two Criteria to Determine the Orientation of an Economy. Comparison for France (1980-1997)”, in Applied Economics, 2002, 34, 16: 2085-91.
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Working Paper: About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997) (2000)
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